India’s Equity Market Shows Resilience Amid Global Trade War Challenges

India’s equity market has demonstrated remarkable resilience despite the uncertainties caused by the ongoing global trade war. A recent report highlights that the BSE 500 index recorded a 6.25% gain in March, marking its best monthly performance in 15 months. This indicates that much of the market excess has likely been corrected, showcasing India’s strong macroeconomic fundamentals.

The report projects India’s GDP growth at 6.5% for FY25, driven by robust domestic consumption, capital expenditure, and a manufacturing upcycle. Additionally, the March Manufacturing PMI rose to 58.1, an eight-month high, while industrial output expanded by 5% year-on-year in January. These factors underline the country’s economic stability amidst global challenges.

While global indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced significant declines of 13% and 11%, respectively, India’s Nifty 50 showed relative resilience, falling only 3%. The report also notes a shift in market dynamics, with a rotation back towards value stocks and large-cap companies, reflecting a preference for stability and size.

The re-emergence of US-China trade tensions in April 2025 has impacted global markets, echoing patterns seen during the 2018 trade war. However, India’s equity market remains well-positioned to navigate these challenges, supported by adaptive strategies and quantitative frameworks.

The report emphasizes that while caution persists among investors due to potential uncertainties, the market is showing signs of recovery. With extreme pessimism already priced in, a rebound may be on the horizon as markets begin to anticipate a turnaround.

India’s equity market continues to stand out as a beacon of stability in a world reshaped by geopolitical fragmentation and macroeconomic uncertainty.