IMD forecasts above-normal monsoon rainfall for India

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast above-normal rainfall for the upcoming monsoon season, spanning June to September 2025. According to IMD’s latest projections, the country is expected to receive 105% of the long-period average (LPA) rainfall, with a model error margin of ±5%

IMD officials have ruled out the possibility of El Niño conditions, which are typically associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall in India. Instead, neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are expected to persist, supporting favorable monsoon activity.

While most parts of India are likely to experience above-normal monsoon rains, certain regions—including northeastern states, Bihar, and Tamil Nadu—may receive below-average rainfall.

The forecast raises hopes for strong agricultural output, as monsoon rains are crucial for kharif crop sowing, which accounts for 60% of India’s total crop production. A well-distributed monsoon could also help stabilize food inflation, improve reservoir levels, and support hydropower generation.