Bajaj Auto reduction; Target Rs 8300: Emkay Global Financial

Emkay Global Financial’s research report on Bajaj Auto
BJAUT reported stable Q1 (revenue/EBITDA growth of 16%/24% YoY; 20.2% EBITDA margin, aided by 50bps of PLI gain). Domestic 2W prospects are good, although BJAUT’s position has now fallen (even in 125cc motorcycles); The reaction to the newly-launched CNG motorcycle needs to be monitored. MGMT is guided to make export recovery gradual, and its focus on Triumph is to build brand awareness. However, valuations remain expensive (trades close to 2SD above LTA, at 28x per FY26E).
outlook
We raise FY26E EPS by ~2.6% (higher margin) and raise FY27 estimates (13% FY24-27E EPS CAGR); We retain REDUCE and revise TP to Rs8,300/sh (rollover from core 23x multiple to Jun-26E) + Rs900 cash and investments/sh. Amid growth/rerating triggers (successful Xtreme 125R launch) and attractive risk-reward, we prefer HMCL in the 2Ws (link).